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"I will be sitting in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, joking that if the conversation went well, he might welcome the interviewer into Number 10 for a follow-up talk in the coming year.

There is never truly downtime for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to decipher exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Starmer seems to have had a degree of a revitalisation. Perhaps even just a little a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This seemed to have left him in improved morale than at the saggy end of 2025, a dreadful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they reckon his fortunes are set to turn around?

Party Concerns

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that many of his party members believe he's ineffective at his job. Several of them would rather take a risk and get him out in 2026.

However Starmer was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "assessed at the general election", maintaining nobody would strip his electoral mandate from him – even if the best chance of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 could be for Labour to change leader.

"This is the struggle of our lifetime and I intend to guide the party," he said.

Upcoming Local Votes

The problem for the prime minister is that he will be assessed long before then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to protest, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir stating that there were no scenario under which he would resign, should one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He sought to account for his unpopularity by saying the voters was reasonably anxious for things to change. He aimed to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that this year would be distinct.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he said, when policies the administration put in place during their initial turbulent year began to show results.

• He pledged to empty asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't put a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to combine US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His core message is that in 2026 the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The PM may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with a longer slot to talk.

But despite facing demands from various quarters for a bolder strategy, with increased political clarity, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in this much political trouble, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have made mistakes, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he regretted saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an outcry when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer blamed "the system" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting obvious political dangers as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with these events seems implausible.

International Law and Brexit

He stated he was a "lifelong proponent of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the entire story at the moment".

Critics wanted him to criticise the action prior to the interview. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an definitive view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also always been simmering desire in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new specific plan to align more closely with the single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely provoke accusations that he is breaking his promise never to try to overturn the results that followed Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will satisfy many on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to